Thats a reversal from the middle decades of the 20th century, when the basic trend was toward greater convergence. On any political map, Illinois is a reliable blue state that has elected Democratic governors four of the last five elections and last backed a Republican presidential candidate before Michael Jordan was winning championships in Chicago. Many of the cities and states that saw their economies bounce back the most from the pandemic-induced slump were those with Republican leaders, who were typically more likely to undo restrictions as they saw them as too excessive. All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly . Nobody ever talks about that. And, he said, his party affiliation has been hard on his wallet. I definitely feel for the people in the red areas of Illinois because you know if the Chicago area has enough people to determine the course of the state, [red areas] are basically never going to win, Jacobson said. Rural Texas still rules the day. 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Holding incumbents accountable is complicated, though, in a system where policy authority is divided across multiple layers and branches of government, and partisanship seems to be more important than actually evaluating a governors performance. For example, if a state has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+5, that means it is 5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. ), From the July/August 2021 issue: How America fractured into four parts. In these. Population exit has become a prominent issue in blue states, including California and New York, which for years have experienced negative net migration. Spencer, who has been involved in Democratic politics since the early 1990s, said his party affiliation has not been a helpful calling card for him in his community. Then, with support from the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans could impose red-state values and programs nationwide, even if most Americans oppose them. Poshard believes a combination of factors is making Democrats less appealing in areas outside Chicago and the suburbs. So I went to work at Walmart, he said. Bailey was once escorted out of the Illinois House because he refused for a day to adhere to the chambers mandate that members and staff wear masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Their governorsGavin Newsom (D-CA), Kathy Hochul (D-NY), Greg Abbott (R-TX), and Ron DeSantis (R-FL)have come to embody these states highly partisan models. Woke policy is so bad, Oregon is turning redhttps://t.co/AwR5GbMgRb, Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 6, 2022. The picture is a bit clearer for the Republicans. The results highlight just how closely the country is split when selecting between governors who have developed two radically different state-level policy visions. During the U.S. Presidential Election in 2000, journalist Tim Russert used the terms "red state" and "blue state" based on the colored maps used during his televised coverage of the election. And Donald Trump won the state by less than 6 percentage points in 2020. (ConservativeJournal.org) The midterms are just around the corner. The gross domestic product per person and the median household income are now both more than 25 percent greater in the blue section than in the red, according to Podhorzers calculations. Since announcing his reelection plans last July, Pritzkers public calendar showed him booked with events on 73 days through Dec. 10. Rather than just protecting slavery within their borders, the Southern states sought to control federal policy to impose their vision across more of the nation, including, potentially, to the point of overriding the prohibitions against slavery in the free states. While Texas Democrats still face daunting historical odds having not carried the state in a presidential electionsince 1976 or won statewide since 1994 parallels can be drawn to Arizona, another border state where Republicans hold has eroded. Throughout this report, we discuss voters as Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. We have relied on standard questions about party identification to describe these voters and have combined some categories together. Spencer drew only 18 percent of the vote. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden laid claim to just 14 Illinois counties. Tonight Texans sent a message that they want to keep the Lone Star State the beacon of opportunity that we provided over the past eight years, Abbott wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening. I would bet if you look across the Democrat Party and downstate Illinois youll find probably 50 to 60% of the precincts not even filled with committeemen, because that expectation that working in the rank-and-file of the party will result in some sort of help in getting a job isnt there anymore, he said. Trump may not be running next time for president, and he won't be in office for Arizona's 2022 Senate race. He said the resolution, which sought to put up clear boundaries between red and blue Illinois, attracted the attention of separation groups. But it went nowhere and now, as a candidate for statewide office, Bailey said he no longer embraces the concept and that Illinois is better off together.. The shooting of 19 children and two adults at a Uvalde elementary school in May touched off criticism of Republicans support of gun rights and gave Democrats hope that voters would agree the GOP had failed Texas children by repeatedly refusing over the years to limit access to firearms. For more information, visit www.roseinstitute.org. The state with the most outbound migration by population was California, with more than 343,000 people leaving the state. Founded in 1973 at Claremont McKenna College, the Rose Institute is one of the nations leading academic centers focused on the study of state and local government. Last year, Spencer ran for Baileys open House seat but lost to Republican state Rep. Adam Niemerg, R-Dieterich. Because of this reality, these states can switch from supporting one party to the other, from election to election. Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. I was campaigning on jobs, education, broadband internet, infrastructure, all kinds of things that would help this area. Many respondents might imagine moving to someplace renowned for its natural environment, such as Hawaii or Colorado. Voters returned GOP incumbents to their jobs at the top of the ticket and handed the states dominant party its 14th consecutive sweep of statewide offices. The conflict between the blue and red states and their representatives has been building for some time, and may reach a climax in our not-too-distant political future. As the distance widens between the two sections, she said, there are all kinds of potential for really deep disruptions, social disruptions, that arent just about our feelings and our opinions., To Podhorzer, the growing separation means that after the period of fading distinctions, bedrock differences dating back to the countrys founding are resurfacing. One of the ladies that I work with up at Walmart, I talked to her last week and I asked her, Hey, did you ever get your coronavirus shot yet? Oh, no. Bailey, whose home county was represented by a Democrat less than 20 years ago, regards himself as a direct byproduct of downstates hardening red hue, a trend he attributes to a decline in moral integrity and fiscal integrity by those in power, particularly Democrats. And it is determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire countrywith or without majority support. The races drew former President Bill Clinton and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, for the Democrats, while U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-California, and Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, stumped for Republicans. "COVID isn't a red state or blue state issue. States like Texas and Florida are seeing an influx of Democrats looking for. This election season, Texans around the state will turn to The Texas Tribune for the information they need on voting, election results, analysis of key races and more. Yet, some respondents may be taking more concrete steps toward actually leaving. One large medical recruiting firm said it recently had 20 obstetrician-gynecologists turn down positions in red states because of abortion laws. To respond to a column, submit a comment to letters@usatoday.com. This red-and-blue states scenario became a thing of conscience with George W. Bush, in 2000, who failed to win back states his father, and their GOP predecessors, had carried routinely. The path all four governors are taking to reelection is paved with partisanship. Countless More Americans Will Be Moving From Blue States To Red States In 2022 The Great Realignment By Michael Snyder. A Republican from San Diego wrote, Taxes are too high in my state and the quality of life is getting worse. An independent from near Santa Barbara wrote more simply, CA is run by morons., The story is somewhat different in Texas and Florida. The Texas I know is young, withnearly halfof the state being younger than 35. This election thus provides voters in the four states an opportunity to judge not only their governors, but also the blue or red agendas they represent. Its a phenomenon examined in stunning detail in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, July 31, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. We then provided a free response box. All of this is fueling what Ive called the great divergence now under way between red and blue states. Nevertheless, unrest can express itself in other waysincluding thoughts of moving out of state. Florida Is Turning Red. Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. Those states are: California Conencticut Delaware Hawaii Illinois Maryland Massachusetts Minnesota New Jersey New Mexico New York Oregon Rhode Island Vermont Washington. Among Democrats, California appears to be a bit more attractive than New York, and there is some interest in the red states as well. The one South Texas congressional seat Republicans did claim, with the victory of Monica De La Cruz, was in a district drawn in 2021 to help a Republican win. The drop-off was even more pronounced if Barack Obamas 2008 presidential win is a marker. "I do not believe that America will become violent enough to be characterized as a civil war," Abrahms says. Texas led the nation in restricting abortion rights even before the U.S. Supreme Court removed the constitutional right to it last summer by overturning Roe v. Wade. Republicans havent led the state of Oregon since 1982. By Brian Trusdell | Grumbach reached a similar conclusion in a recent paper analyzing trends in small-d democracy across the states. By that yardstick, there are 25 red states, 17 blue states, and eight purple states, where state-government control has typically been divided. In November 2020, when he ran for the Illinois Senate, he built on that margin, winning 77% of the vote. It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. Assisted by student research assistants at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, we divided responses into three categories: economic reasons, political and policy reasons, and personal reasons. The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. Simultaneously, the regional differences were moderated by waves of national investment, including the New Deal spending on rural electrification, the Tennessee Valley Authority, agricultural price supports, and Social Security during the 1930s, and the Great Society programs that provided federal aid for K12 schools and higher education, as well as Medicare and Medicaid. . But so many of today's states have a partisan voting index . As the nation has sorted itself into red and blue territory, places where Democrats once were competitive in state races have become more solidly Republican. The 102 GOP-controlled cities and towns, in fact, is less than the 119 Stefanowski won in 2018 in a losing . The RED WAVE did not happen, Flores wrote in a fiery Tweet after her apparent defeat on Tuesday. Sometimes, you might get hit, Spencer said in a tone where it didnt sound like he was joking. Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news. They worked, tirelessly, so my brother and I could have opportunities they never had. Virginia remains a blue state because, all things being equal, in statewide federal races, the Democratic nominee starts off with a clear advantage. More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving . In this match-up, DeSantis barely edges out Newsom, 51-49%. Three dozen of those days were devoted to appearances in Chicago, while 22 were downstate with three in the collar counties and five in suburban Cook. By Nicole Narea @nicolenarea Nov 11, 2022, 10:04am EST During the seven decades of legal Jim Crow segregation from the 1890s through the 1960s, the principal goal of the southern states at the core of red America was defensive: They worked tirelessly to prevent federal interference with state-sponsored segregation but did not seek to impose it on states outside the region. Later, in a survey by WBEZ, he was among only a handful of Illinois legislators who would not publicly state their vaccination status. Texas40 electoral votes are on the table. The trend of population migration Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states is examined in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. But the party couldnt replicate it this time around, in spite of ORourke again leading the ticket as well as lingering anger over the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection by Trump supporters and a widely criticized law enforcement response to the May 24 school shooting in Uvalde. A two-Democrats in the Senate, Biden-voting blue state. Following the primary, the Texas Democratic Party adopted themost progressiveplatform in state history, including planks of Sanders most transformative policies like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal. This maxim would clearly preclude New Mexico's shift from blue to red, considering its diversity: approximately 49.3% of New Mexico's residents are Latino, while 11% are Native American. Raphael Warnock, then-candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, and Stacey Abrams, former candidate for Georgia governor . Meanwhile, California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey rounded out the bottom of the list. Pritzker defeated Rauner in Cook County by more than 836,000 votes. Democrats blamed Republican-appointed regulators for failing to prepare the grid for disasters. U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who lost the South Texas seat she had won in a special election earlier this year, blamed apathy by conservative voters as well as independents who had heavily leaned Republican in Texas polling. The short answer is that Republicans win a lot of small towns, just as Republicans in presidential races win a lot of rural counties, making the vast majority of the U.S. political map red, by area. All Rights Reserved. Thats all to say downstate votes werent decisive in Pritzkers 2018 win. That's not a new trend this year. Florida added one seat, and Texas added two. These results are part of a larger survey project conducted by the CMC-Rose Institute Poll during the 2022 election cycle. Democrats have always asserted, and polls have suggested, that bigger turnout at the polls would lead to Democratic victories. When someone moves to a new home in another state, they have to submit a change-of-address request, so the data are a reliable proxy for migration statistics, according to the NAR. Hispanic residents now represent the largest ethnic group in Texas, surpassing non-Hispanic white residents earlier this year in a census estimate. One might think incumbents in these states should fear voter retribution at a time when many Americans are struggling. Poshard, of downstate Marion, won 43 counties during his bid for governor but lost to Republican George Ryan by less than 4 percentage points. Whats becoming clearer over time is that the Trump-era GOP is hoping to use its electoral dominance of the red states, the small-state bias in the Electoral College and the Senate, and the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court to impose its economic and social model on the entire nationwith or without majority public support. North Carolina is probably the most likely of those to go blue in 2024. Regardless of the margins Rauner put up in them, they werent enough to overcome Pritzker winning four out of five of the collar counties and taking Cook County by historic margins. These states continue to vote for the . Millions of Americans are fleeing blue states for freer, more prosperous red states. Specifically, Republicans are more likely to want to leave California and New York and more Democrats are more likely to want to leave Texas and Florida. These changes were catalyzed by a diversifying electorate similar to Texas and aggressive investment in organizing to reach young voters and voters of color. Baileys lawsuit is pending in Sangamon County Circuit Court, where it was consolidated with other legal challenges to Pritzkers pandemic orders. All of the blue states have expanded access to Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, while about 60 percent of the total red-nation population lives in states that have refused to do so. One Florida resident wrote: Hurricanes and heat plus critters. Another: too hot. Democrats in Texas and Florida had additional reasons, frequently mentioning politics and policy concerns. Disclosure: University of Houston has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. YouGov also provided survey weights that permitted the analysis of the national sample of registered voters, a subset identified as likely voters, and the same quantities in each state. Mostly, it comes down to cities. With these three states shifted into those categories, the two nations are almost equal in eligible voting-age population, and the blue advantage in GDP roughly doubles, with the blue section contributing 48 percent and the red just 35 percent. If a red wave arrives in November, as many expect, it will likely wash ashore in landlocked Nevada, a state whose recent history of Democratic victories masks just how hard-fought those. Opinions in your inbox: Get a digest of our takes on current events every day. The majority of people in these states have been voting for the Democratic Party for quite a few years now. PROVIDENCE, R.I. Republicans are pressing their advantage deep into Democratic territory in the closing stretch of the 2022 campaign, competing for an abundance of House seats amid growing. More of the potential movers are motivated by what we categorized as personal reasons. Read: Americas red-blue divide is about to get starker. My work as a community organizer in Texas, a soldierand a graduate student at Harvard are just as much their achievements as they are mine. Instead, we asked all respondents across the nation to choose, head-to-head, between Newsom and DeSantis. A 13-year-old girl named Meilin turns into a giant red panda whenever she gets too excited. And yet, in the states more recent political past, Democrats are the ones with the upper hand as blue Illinois gets bluer, and red Illinois gets redder and angrier that they dont have a voice statewide. The GOP's defending 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in 2022. In California, many respondents from across the political spectrum described concerns about the cost of living and other aspects of the economy. He won in remote downstate counties like Alexander, in more populated places like Peoria and Rock Island counties and in university-dominated counties like Champaign, Knox and DeKalb. In California, a remarkable 70% of Republicans said they are interested in leaving the state, compared to 27% of Democrats. We settled down in southwest Houston a community filled with signs written in Chinese characters, the rhythmic sizzle of al pastor on the grills of dueling taco trucks, and the low vibration of chopped and screwed bass pulsing from car speakers. "We are at best a purple state" A purple state is one in which voters' support for the Democratic Party, represented by the color blue, and the Republican Party, represented by the color red, is about equal. The reputation was red. (Podhorzer also offers a slightly different grouping of the states that reflects the more recent trend in which Virginia has voted like a blue state at the presidential level, and Arizona and Georgia have moved from red to purple. Experts Warn GOP War on Abortion Will Turn Red and Blue States Into 'Mutually Hostile Legal Territories' "The demise of Roe will exacerbate America's antagonisms, creating more furious legal rifts between states than we've seen in modern times." Kenny Stancil May 06, 2022 When Im talking to people, just about everyone acknowledges the fact life is not what it should be, and its certainly not what our founding fathers intended, he said. One of his early legislative moves was his co-sponsorship of a resolution that urged Congress to eject Chicago from Illinois and declare the city as the 51st state. There has never been a more urgent moment, however, for Democrats to organize and fight for transformative change in the Lone Star State. The winning formula Pritzker used in 2018 relied primarily on mining votes from heavily populated Chicago and its surrounding suburbs, keeping Illinois power Democratic. That kind of track record can make the state actually look geographically deep red even though Democrats currently hold every statewide elected office. A recent poll from Emerson College shows that a typically deep blue state may be on the verge of turning red after November. And it was another rebuke of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto ORourke, who lost his third election in four years. The other two are former state Sen. Paul Schimpf, R-Waterloo, and GOP newcomer Jesse Sullivan, of Petersburg. Only about a fifth searched for a new job; further, not very many at all learned about new schools. People do, and that accounts for why Democrats keep winning governors races in Illinois during the past quarter century despite not having a message that resonates throughout all 102 counties. Census: US population growth 2nd lowest in history, The nation's political center of gravity shifted further to the Republican-led South and West on Monday, with Texas, Florida and other Sun Belt states gaining congressional seats while chillier climes like New York and Ohio lost them. Americas future is Texas. The same data show that four additional states lean toward being Democratic states. Our findings indicate that both candidates can count on the support of vast majorities of their own parties, with Newsom losing slightly more Democrats than DeSantis loses Republicans. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still dont have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, he said. And red states across the Sun Belt rank among the nations fastest growing in population. Approximately 36% of respondents supported the Republican, while just 34% threw their hat behind Kotek instead. The Blue States and the Red States are referred to as states of the U.S. whose voters predominantly choose either the Democratic Party (Blue) or Republican Party (Red) for Presidential and Senatorial Candidates. Thats all theyre concerned about is guns and abortion.. Lower taxes, Republican legislatures, and stronger pandemic economies people flocked to red states and abandoned blue ones in 2022. AT&T DirecTV Censorship of Newsmax Continues, See More Here, Report: Texas, Arizona, Florida Posted Biggest Population Gains in 2021, Red States Grow as Blue States Shrink: Census, Air Force Fires Nuclear Base Leaders After Failed Inspection, Consumer Product Safety Commission Wants Information on Gas Stove Hazards. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. 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