That shit is gonna go way way up to 50k! Hows that Nvidia stock doing now that GPU sales have been skyrocketing this last year giving them two record years in 2016 and 2017? if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. January 2, 2018, 6:04 pm. OK, But What if Bitcoin Becomes the World Currency? There is no reliable way to track or trace paper. There you go. I have these lovely tulip bulbs for sale, please PM me. If you're careful to invest in an altcoin that has a clear value proposition (ripple comes to mind) you can set it and check once a day at most. E.g. Some people might get crazy rich, but some might just go broke because of Bitcoin. This is not going to happen. In stating that humans have never had a chance to own their own money you have hit on the essential problem with bitcoin and any other monetary alternative. At least theyre cute and the grand kids like them! The poorest in Sub-Saharan Africa earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do. And if you havent been digging into the cryptocurrency world much, it gets way weirder than this. Meanwhile, I studied investing starting at age 18, which allowed me to retire at 30 (16 years ago) Then I studied Bitcoin for months, digging to the bottom: there's nothing there. I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. Like a piece of a profitable business or a rentable piece of real estate. Michael ;). Thanks for sharing your opinion! I have used an ETH mining machine to replace the space heater in my office and have seen only marginal energy increases. (Or computers or spaceships.) Speculation is fine, as long as you are using only money you are willing to lose. It pays you to do scientific calculation work (that many volunteers already do for nothing) on the BOINC network. Its interesting that you state the high water mark was $700,000, but now its $500k. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. Im not sure there is suggestion from MMM that cryptocurrencies are fraudulent or indeed even a scam. After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustachesfingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supplyso lets use them as the new world currency! Probably, but I dont care. Therefor, John will go on believing strangers on YouTube over me so I will be there to pick up the pieces when the house of cards crumbles. It is a good. Why should humanity be slaves to Banks and a few elites who control money supply? I use purse.io to buy stuff from Amazon. A similar dynamic is at play with stocks: Is $1 of ongoing future earnings worth sacrificing $1 today? Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. As of now, BTC has none of those characteristics. Great text. Sure, China is a renewables leader but it has limits. Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. Care to mention how deep you are into it? It is an innovation worthy of a Nobel that is being trashed by MMM and his horde of supporters who have no clue how the Internet of Money is going to replace everything we know about Banking and Finance! Got it. The $16,728 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook. I suspect it will have uses beyond public currency. Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). Governments have no choice here. LennStar I am not a millionaire either or have any heavy investments in any of this and I am not certainly looking to grow my investments by commenting on a blog, of all places! Its not that I enjoy seeing people suffer, but who am to talk them out of it? January 5, 2018, 7:21 pm, *cough* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. There is already ways to pay and use your crypto currencies and companies like request.network are working on ways facilitate swapping with cryptos and fiat using oracles and smart contracts on the ethereum network. This is no different from rich wall street people and government controlling fiat currency. People will release new ones all the time and people invest in them, not because they will ever be useful but because they expect the price to skyrocket. Mr. Money Mustache was a thirtysomething retiree who now writes about how we can all lead a frugal yet Badass life of leisure. . It certainly is for day traders in short term. 1) Adoption curve and network effect, 2) people buying & holding (hodling), 3) people using it to buy stuff or services. Same wishes to you on your toilet paper fiat money my friend. Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. My issue is with the currencies themselves. The comment about 1999 investors didnt receive their investment back from stocks until this year well, for the rest of us that dont invest 100% of our money in the stock market in one instance AND we reinvest dividends, this type of situation is almost impossible. !, What is money? About a 1/3 of it gets taken before the IRS even gets their grubs on it. An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? . The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and maybe everyone that posts here about how wonderful Bitcoin is will be minted a Bitcoin millionaire and will lock in those profits can we remain sane and humble on the other side? January 2, 2018, 8:08 pm, Another great article that i share with my friends who are obsessed with Bitcoin: http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/. You basically have to first deposit a lot of money (as a reserve) onto bitcoin exchange sites, which themselves are only loosely regulated and would probably become insolvent if bitcoin crashed. As for USD working has many reasons, required to participate in the largest economy in the world, the military power behind said economy, etc. I remain open to more information on the uses of Blockchain, but Ive never seen a valid fundamental reason for betting on future increases in the prices of these things. You made an unsupported claim. What you are describing is called a silent crash. I hope it wasn't, but as he said in the article, it's none of our damn business. rollie fingers Although I do get where MMM is trying put an emphasis on the difference in investing and speculation. Bitcoin is used for some pretty awful things, the accountant at my dads prior employer stole $500,000+ and likely hid it from the authorities. 2) Prices rise so much that earnings increase while stock prices remain the same. :). I think getting out with $500,000 would be a great thing, but then that would be an enormous amount of money for me. Moneymeister 16-02-2023 WIDM 2023: mijn mening en verdenkingen tot nu toe. This is a known bug in our operating system, and we have designed some parts of our society to protect us against it. This MMM article seems almost contradictory to what has become an investment philosophy that reciprocates with many people. Market timing is a fools errand anyway. Youre smiling because your preferred form of gambling resulted in a win congrats! It's the ultimate win/win because you just set it and forget it. So for it to be a global currency taco bell is going to have to start paying kids in btc. Do not give up. To keep things non-promotional, please use a real name or nickname(not Blogger @ My Blog Name). This financial libertarian streak is at the core of Bitcoin, and youll hear echoes of that sentiment in all the pro-crypto blogs and podcasts. I noticed that you didnt deny that you are invested in Bitcoin. In the mean time, Ill keep selling the bitcoins that I purchased for $30 each at $15k a pop. But consider some things that will live up the hype.. like improved immunotherapies for cancer or Crisprs ability to cheaply edit DNA line by line. Listen on: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube. Read your history, it happens occasionally. We have never in history had such expanding currency supply backed by NOTHING. So no, its not a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme, but its no better than taking a spin down the Vegas Strip either. > what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? Im interested to see how this plays out. It makes you want to laugh and cry. BURST ( http://burst-coin.org ) as an example uses PoC (Proof of Capacity). That is why our civilization used that rather than perishables or iron. I can 100 percent guarantee you that my mom and pop will still be using fiat paper, and so will I, and so will the worlds governments. Use this 500K wisely and make our planet better! Een of andere blog . Many African countries have central banks. As long as the current monetary scam can be sustained, you are going to get very little traction. It is when stock prices stay the same in nominal terms but everything else rises in price around them, effectively masking the very real stock market crash through inflation. Yes, that is your ground reality today. For those saying specific instances of cryptocurrency do not have long-term potential (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, etc), the network effect is a force to be reckoned with. Episode 497: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - 2 by Mr. Money Mustache. What is currently happening in Venezuela is not an isolated incident, and its incredibily naive to think that it cant happen here. Like they say, speculation is as old as the hills. Sorry, PoF, Im staying away from your Bitcoins until I see a Tweet about the ones filled with chocolate. This bubble is going to break, the environmental waste is awful, and CNBC legitimizing this as investing with ticket symbols must stop. Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. Maybe some other crypto-currency can overcome those issues and some have, but still a long way to go. Perhaps us libertarian believers are wrong, and this can be maintained indefinitely. All true. Mr. Money Mustache and his then-wife retired at the age of 30 with a net worth of $600,000. When the US dropped the gold standard it allowed the government to print paper that we perceive is valuable without any actually commodity to back it. This way, whichever direction GBTC goes, you wont be in a regretful situation. Dont know if youve seen JP Searss satire of Bitcoin but I think you might appreciate it. Or maybe you dont understand how exchanges work. The worlds governments are not going to let everyone start trading money anonymously and evading taxes using Bitcoin. These people are either shit scared of the changes that are going to come, or dont understand macro economics. I was excited to get in on the IFCO (Initial Fingernail Clipping Offering) but the price had already shot up while I was reading. Its like Winston Churchill said: Gold is the silliest, most irrational thing you could ever use as money. United States . I agree with MMM that cryptocurrency in general is kind of dubious, and that Bitcoin is a particularly stupid implementation of it. I really would hope that MMM doesnt sell out like most social influencers but regardless not understanding the technology is no excuse for spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about it. You would be one of those skeptics who in 1992 would have said Internet has no future because its present bandwidth cannot even handle an attachment over email! The reason internet destroys industries (?? Its only valuable when you cash it out to a real currency again, like the US dollar, and use it to buy something useful like a nice house or a business. Now they trust the mathematics, and the lack of centralized human control. I just wish it had come out before the holidays so I could have just pointed family members to it instead of attempting (unsuccessfully!) January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. (which is more Mustachian..), Michelle, Mr Buffetts advice is clearly correct I mean, its Warren Buffett were talking about. January 2, 2018, 9:01 pm. Justin C These are all things that people have bought in the past, and driven to completely irrational prices, not because they did anything useful or produced any money and value to society, but solely because they thought they would be able to sell them to someone else for more in the future. Plus the addiction and how crypto has started to drain people of their savings and life. Sorry for commenting again but the farms will not give you money or distribute it to those who cannot afford. PS: Brent, you write that if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. Further more rants about the skyrocketing cost of housing and how many people cannot afford their mortgages, with further people saying mortgage payments wont matter because those people can just sell for more when the payments become a problem. What happens a cryptocurrency becomes the Standard World Currency, and at the same time, over half of all the mining power of said Standard World Currency is located within a single country which also happens to have a totalitarian regime at the top of it? Right now if bitcoin enjoys the lead, what is there to call it stupid. No. Yes, its unstable, and you wouldnt say trade it, but as a long term investment it has been proven itself. MissSaraBee As far as Im concerned, this is the final word on Bitcoin. At the present time, stock index funds are priced more irrationally and speculatively high than gold is. Or streaming music, and streaming movies! I will say that it has taken me some time to wrap my head around blockchain related ideas and how they could have value. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm, I considered investing in Bitcoin back in the summer, but decided to spend my time doing other Mustachian things such as enjoying the outdoors and spending quality time with family and friends. Who would help the poor, elderly and uneducated those without BTC? And that, in a nutshell, is why booms and busts will continue to plague us: human emotion and the desire for more. This Vice article explains yet another ridiculous aspect of Cryptocurrency: running the transaction network (called Mining) involves a deliberate computer-intensive crypto challenge syetem called proof of work. Doingone transaction burns 215 kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to run the entire MMM household for more than a full month, or to power an electric car formore than 800 miles of driving. No doubt we are in a crypto mania now, but the concept of a global digital currency has been coming since Biblical times. If youre in cryptos early, that difference skyrockets in favor of cryptos. Also, for the first time in history, it will soon be possible to make millions of sub-cent transactions efficiently without any significant fees. This is the greatest use of human energy and capital the world has ever seen. Id argue strongly that its a good thing. ), You write that things that gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments.. Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. Mostly: Its shiny and pretty and makes great jewelry and chicks dig it. The behavior of bitcoin since the genesis block has been completely different. Ive used it a few times and although they take a few days to funnel money to you in the form of Amazon credits, they have always come through. Shorting bitcoin would just be speculation in the opposite direction. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. Just like gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments. A lot of jobs today exists only to oversee things. Smoking brings zero value to society, only net negative. Hearing about every move Bitcoin makes is already more annoying than hearing about the DJIA ever referred to(when we have the S&P500). Thanks, MMM! The government has done some sickening things to ensure the wealthy and powerful stay wealthy and powerful. November 20, 2018, 12:00 pm, so other storage is NOT needed sorry, my phone likes to randomly delete words, Tor Kristen Haugen Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. I try to lead people to conclude what I have. And this, MMM There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. Michael Most people understand nothing apart from my friend bought some BTC for $5k last month and now theyre worth $20k. All technology goes through a bit of a curve where new technologies have multiple competitors and slowly they formulate around standards and a smaller core group of players. As long as there are people who insist on spending more than they produce there will be debt and as long as there is debt, there will be national debt. Bitcoin didnt fly off the charts until a couple of months ago, after (maybe) finding itself in the perfect storm to take a bubble to biblical proportions. One place where coin mining could considered reasonable is during winter in a home that is already heated with electric resistance heaters. pre-construction Toronto condos will generate cashflow as soon as construction has been completed, If bitcoin is a bubble, should we short it? January 2, 2018, 8:53 pm. There is no intrinsic value in ALL FIAT CURRENCIES. Places like Singapore, Estonia, Switzerland appear to already working on converting their systems to digital cash. Also withdrawing profits consistently so that if a crash comes you are ahead of the game and only playing with the markets money by withdrawing at minimum what you already invested. Looks like I made a big mistake then. Also, what is the source of that study? Vijay, I think you should sell every non-bitcoin asset you own, borrow as much money as you possibly can, and buy as many bitcoins as possible. Blockchain isnt just a software protocol, the algorithm guiding it doesnt have to be open source, some cryptoassets pay the miners for securing the network through concepts such as proof of stake and delegated byzantine fault tolerance, some networks support decentralized applications with actual potential and have intrinsic value. Digiconomist notes this would make bitcoin the 59th biggest energy consumer if it were a country.. Bitcoin CANNOT shelter you, pay dividends nor feed you. Trust is important. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? Secondly, Governments are (by definition) other people, spending other peoples money on what other people tell them are other peoples problems often they screw up fiat currencies through simple incompetence they have no motivation to get it right. I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. False analogies. And a currency thats not used for transactions isnt a real currency. Thats pretty much it. Tim Beck Every day when I go online, Ill see updates, news or discussion about Bitcoin and the craze it has created whether its on YouTube, blogs, or mainstream news. So Im going with no. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. Max Thunder Think of it this way: Are you willing to literally gamble with multiple years of financial independence you CURRENTLY HAVE knowing there is a high likelihood you could LOSE IT ALL tomorrow? I think I found the mistake in your reasoning. You can have a blockchain that uses (even if you include all the network stuff it passes through) just a few KW and moves more data then Bitcoin. farmecologist I have accepted lifes nudge and opened up several pages of your blog and am working through them right after this, The Vigilante I am so happy to see this article! You gotta have it. A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent operation designed to steal peoples money. If you want to move away from current currencies then you would probably have better luck starting a Craigslist for bartering website where you cant list prices. Just because the last while has been great, it wont always be that way. To call gold a non-productive asset misses the point entirely. Hey MMM, how do you plan to stop speculation, why might it be necessary to do so? Ryan Thomas One of my coworkers at MMM-HQ works for nVidia, and part of his job is hunting down mining thieves who comandeer virtual servers (cloud computing) to mine coins on their behalf. I was hoping that when bitcoin futures became a real thing, Id be able to short it in a more normal way. If people are creating an bubble out of it, people is stupid, not bitcoin. Thats almost the opposite of how hydroelectric dams work (I did a couple years of power research in Quebec, which also has massive dams). January 3, 2018, 12:22 pm. January 10, 2018, 11:01 am. If they talk about investing in BTC or any crypto CURRENCY, I say, well, I think Ill invest in Mexican Pesos. According to the index, the amount of energy consumed by mining bitcoin surged about 26 percent in November alone and now totals nearly 36 terawatt hours, enough energy to power about 3.3 million homes. Started by myrrh. 3) If you are retired, with enough to last you the rest of your life even in cash, then you have eliminated most risks (market crash etc) but not all- the currency you hold your wealth in can fall greatly. So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. Think that would fly at the grocery store? But really, I'm not a finance guy - someone who devotes most of his time to optimizing money. I enjoyed this analysis by Aswath Damodaran, a thoughtful investor and Professor at NYU school of business. For fun, I try to gauge how bad is the Fear of missing out is and how that corresponds to a peak. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. Own as much Bitcoin as matches your understanding of Bitcoin. I dont think attacking how Bitcoin is being used is a good argument because of this. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? However, taking a very small gamble doesnt hurt 99% is invested in s&p 500 and that will remain like that :). Vijay, its okay. Thanks for saying this MMM! 2 years later, and each coin is 28,736.04 or $39,388.47. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! Nothing is promised. Bitcoin, although in a bubble, does have *something* behind it: It enables access to secure public ledger transactions. i could talk for hours on the subject but Bitcoin is here to stay as it has already become central to a growing number of economies. Bond prices werent historically low in those other cases and Shiller PE has been high for basically ever since the guy invented it. That is wrong. That said, I did buy $300 of Bitcoin back in November (which is a tiny fraction of a percentage of our net worth) on the off chance it keeps escalating like crazy. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. also look at russian, venezuala and Argentina for more proof of bitcoin. When we talk about Bitcoin, or Ethereum or any other digital coin, for that matter, neither ponzi nor pyramid are perfectly accurate descriptions for how these systems actually work., The cryptocoins represent a new kind of scam, a Nakamoto Scheme: https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/. Take a look at this shot from the website coinmarketcap.com, and observe the preposterous herd behavior in real life: Fig.1: Various cryptocurrencies, ranked by how many people have been fooled. Do you have any stats to share? However, there are a couple things you are wrong about here, and are worth commenting on. The Money Mustache Community Learning, Sharing, and Teaching Investor Alley Our Crypto Investment strategy (slow and steady investing for the win) . In a practical sense, this . When the supply of foolish speculators dries up, the value evaporates often very quickly. They cant use these gift cards. This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. If not, you may want to think about selling. Guys. Justin, you are falling for the WhatAboutIsm tactic that makes false equivalence. There are other points that I cant think of right now. The ones who own the farms you mean? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, The Wealthy Accountant You mixed that up. The people that buy into bitcoin will be hurting enough financially. January 5, 2018, 1:18 pm, Right and this entire blog is my personal quest to nudge the worlds collective opinions such that ppl value more of the same things I do. As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! Bitcoin is actually a saviour that provides the world an opportunity to get out of total mess without fighting a WW3! by jlcollinsnh 18 Comments. So, I use bitcoin to buy stuff with the gift cards from these people. The issue with the .com bubble was internet companies were given a high valuation with no demonstration that they were profitable or even provided a service/product. Except for ripple coin. More? Given that China has a lot of bitcoin mines and electricity is produced by coal in China mostly thats a lot of unnecessary CO2 that just got bumped in the atmosphere. It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. No, I am more inclined to trust economic models where the rules are clearly defined and cannot be changed, by anyone, ever. 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